UFC Mexico Fight Predictions
Mexico City is gearing up for a night of high-stakes action as the UFC touches down south of the border once more, with a fiercely anticipated Flyweight main event that could reshape the division’s trajectory. Saturday’s showdown at the Arena CDMX sees the return of the country’s favorite warrior, Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno, in a bout that feels personal, pivotal, and poetic all at once. Can he reclaim the fire that once had him wearing UFC gold? Or will Stephen Erceg spoil the homecoming?
Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Stephen Erceg
Few fighters command the loyalty that Brandon Moreno does. The former Flyweight champ is more than an elite athlete in Mexicohe’s a symbol of grit, joy, and an ever-smiling defiance of the odds. But after going 1-3 in his last four outs, questions are swirling like a brisk high-altitude breeze in Mexico City.
Stephen Erceg, meanwhile, has made a compelling case for himself in just three UFC appearances. The Aussie has looked sharp, tricky, and composed, especially in his win over Matt Schnell. He’s tall for the weight class, fights long, and has a stark understanding of distanceskills that will be tested against Moreno’s signature chaos.
Prediction: Moreno via Unanimous Decision
Moreno’s footwork fluidity, jab feints, and mixture of striking levels should shine under the spotlight. Erceg has never fought someone of Brandon’s caliberand certainly not in this kind of atmosphere. The altitude, the crowd, the pressurethey favor the Mexican veteran. While Erceg might make moments of it with his range and patience, Moreno’s tempo and motor should earn him the nod from the judges. Expect a technical showcase peppered with crowd eruptions.
Co-Main Event: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega 2
It’s always spicy when Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega are in the cageeven the last time, though brief, delivered a heavy dose of drama. That 2022 clash was cut short due to Ortega’s shoulder injury, but it gave us glimpses of chess-level movement, adjustments, and dagger-like strikes from both men. The rematch carries the air of unfinished businessand don’t we love that?
Rodriguez, who tasted interim gold before being flattened by Alexander Volkanovski, is still a top-tier featherweight with a spinning back fist for every occasion and a flying knee for everything else. Ortega, meanwhile, remains a submission wizard with heart for days and evolving striking.
Prediction: Ortega via Third-Round Submission
Call it bold, call it blind faith, but Ortega tends to shine in warsand that might be exactly what this turns into. While Yair will likely seize early momentum with his kicks and movement, Ortega’s gritty forward pressure and clinch game could change the tone by Round 2. If he gets the fight to the floorand that’s a big “if”the threat is real. Look for a scramble. Look for a neck. Look for a tap. Ortega by submission feels like a story waiting to be written.
Other Key Fights to Watch
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado
Call this the lightweight dark horse classic. Zellhuber has been polishing his patient, poised style, and fighting in front of a home crowd might pull something visceral out of him. Prado is no slouchhe’s durable with knockout power and a relentless pacebut he often leads with emotion rather than strategy.
Prediction: Zellhuber via Unanimous Decision
At altitude, cardio becomes gold. Zellhuber’s control and discipline should help him stifle Prado’s explosions and edge him on activity and accuracy.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Teen phenom Raul Rosas Jr. continues his meteoric rise against the wild-card that is Ricky Turcios. The unpredictability here is immenseRosas’ youth and hunger matched against Turcios’ unconventional rhythm and unbreakable energy.
Prediction: Rosas Jr. via First-Round Submission
Rosas is slick when opponents overcommit, and Turcios might walk right into it. Assuming Rosas doesn’t gas himself out going for a finish too early, his grappling edge could slice right through Ricky’s defense in the opening stanza.
Loopy Godinez vs. Amanda Ribas
A strawweight delight is on tap as Loopy Godinez steps in against the always entertaining Amanda Ribas. This has ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it thanks to Ribas’ flair and Godinez’s persistent pressure.
Prediction: Godinez via Split Decision
Expect a slugfest with plenty of takedown attempts and clinch chaos. Ribas may land the cleaner shots, but Godinez’s grit and control may just earn her a narrowand possibly controversialwin.
Altitude, Adrenaline, and Audacity
Let’s not understate the role of Mexico City altitude here. It’s brutal. Fighters who’ve trained at sea level will feel it early. Those who’ve prepped for ita lá Moreno and companymay dominate the later rounds. Altitude turns ambitions into ashes for the ill-prepared. Watch closely from Round 2 onwardsthat’s when champions are made… or unmade.
Final Thoughts
UFC Mexico isn’t merely a televised cage fight eventit’s a homecoming celebration, an elevation battle, and quite possibly a prelude to the next big title runs in multiple divisions. With a raucous crowd behind them and legacies on the line, expect fireworks in the Octagon and goosebumps along the way. From poetic revenge stories to breakout moments, this card promises to punch above its weightin altitude and excitement.
When the curtain falls Saturday night, we may not just be talking about the winners of fights. We might be witnessing the emergence of new title contenders and the resurrection of a Mexican icon.
